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Bitcoin: The Savings Layer for an AI-Run Economy

Matthew Halfacre, Founder and CEO, Halfacre Research

Abstract

Soon every person will run their money through an AI agent of their own. We believe it is already starting. An agent that saves for someone has to choose where to keep value over time. Our thesis is that agents will choose Bitcoin as their default savings layer. The dollar loses spending power by design. Gold is hard to move, verify and audit. Bitcoin has a fixed supply that any machine can check for itself. Agents will still invest in other assets whenever they judge those can beat Bitcoin. Bitcoin becomes the benchmark to beat and the default store, not the only holding. In 2008 Satoshi Nakamoto described money that needs no trusted third party 1. We believe its most natural users will be software.

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Contents

1. The Problem: Saving in Money That Shrinks

Saving is simple. You put off spending today so you can spend more later. That only works if your money holds its value while you wait.

The dollar has not. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) averaged 9.9 in 1913 and 313.689 in 2024 23. Prices rose about 31 times over. A 1913 dollar buys about 3 cents of goods today. The Federal Reserve openly aims for 2 percent inflation a year over the longer run, measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures 4. The loss is not an accident. It is stated policy.

People can protect themselves by moving savings into other assets. Doing that well takes time, research and discipline. Most people don't have all three. That gap is the opening for AI agents.

9.9

CPI-U, 1913

313.689

CPI-U, 2024

2. The Shift: Each Person Gets an AI Agent

Software already manages money for people. The SEC describes robo-advisers as automated advisers, typically registered investment advisers, that use online algorithms to build and manage client portfolios, and it issued guidance for them in February 2017 5. What is new is this. AI agents can now hold funds and pay for things themselves.

  • Coinbase's AgentKit lets developers create and manage crypto wallets for AI agents 6.
  • On May 6, 2025, Coinbase introduced x402, an open standard that lets APIs, apps and AI agents pay with stablecoins over the web. It uses the long-dormant HTTP 402 "Payment Required" code 7.

Our thesis is that this grows into a personal AI agent for each person. The agent learns its owner's goals. It watches markets. It acts within limits the owner sets. Once it holds money, it has to decide where savings sit between decisions.

3. What an Agent Needs From Savings

  1. It should not lose value by design. An agent planning over years will notice a stated 2 percent yearly inflation goal 4.
  2. It must move as data. An agent works over networks, at any hour, across borders.
  3. It must be verifiable without trust. An agent can't inspect a vault or judge an assayer. It needs proof it can compute.
  4. Its supply must be checkable. An agent should be able to confirm that no one can quietly make more.

4. Why Not the Dollar

The dollar moves well as data. It fails the first and fourth tests. Its supply is set by the Federal Reserve and the banking system, and its spending power has fallen by about 97 percent since 1913 2. The dollar is good for spending. It is bad for saving.

5. Why Not Gold

  • Not portable. Large holdings sit in vaults, and moving them is slow and costly. Germany's Bundesbank moved 674 tonnes of its gold home to Frankfurt, about 300 tonnes from New York and 374 tonnes from Paris. The move followed a plan announced in 2013 and was finished in 2017 8.
  • Hard to tell from fakes. In 2020, lenders to China's Kingold Jewelry found that at least some of the 83 tonnes of gold bars it had pledged as loan collateral were gilded copper 910.
  • Hard to audit. Even a central bank has to go to great lengths to confirm its gold is real. The Bundesbank melted down 55 tonnes of the bars it brought from New York to test that they were genuine and pure 11. The London bullion market relies on refiners accredited by the London Bullion Market Association, whose bars must meet identical standards for weight and purity 12. An agent can't do any of this over a network.

674 tonnes

Gold moved home to Frankfurt

6. Why Bitcoin

  • Fixed supply. Bitcoin Core starts the reward at 50 BTC per block and halves it every 210,000 blocks, about every four years, and it rejects any amount above 21 million BTC 13. Total supply ends just under 21 million.
  • Public auditability. Every transaction is recorded on a public proof-of-work chain, so anyone can check the history without trusting a third party 1. An agent can run a node and check the full supply itself.
  • Native to networks. Bitcoin is sent between peers with digital signatures and no financial institution in the middle 1. Like software, it works at any hour and across borders.

We believe these properties make Bitcoin the savings layer an agent would pick by its own logic.

21 million BTC

Fixed supply, just under 21 million

7. Benchmark, Not Only Holding

Our thesis is not that agents hold only Bitcoin. An agent's job is to serve its owner's goals. We believe agents will keep savings in Bitcoin by default and move into stocks, bonds, real estate, businesses or any other asset when they judge it can beat Bitcoin over the owner's time frame. Bitcoin is the default store. It is the benchmark every other choice must beat.

Bitcoin's price is volatile, and an agent, like a person, has to weigh that against its owner's goals and time frame.

8. Conclusion

Satoshi described a peer-to-peer electronic cash system that needs no trusted third party 1.

We believe the users who need it most are arriving now. They are AI agents that hold and move money for people. Money that shrinks can't hold their savings. Gold can't keep up with them.

Our thesis is that Bitcoin becomes the savings layer for an AI-run economy, with every other asset measured against it.

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This paper states Halfacre Research's views about the future; they may prove wrong.

Research, not advice. You decide. Halfacre Research.

References (all accessed Oct 14, 2026)

  1. Satoshi Nakamoto, "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System," 2008. https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
  2. U.S. BLS, CPI-U, series CUUR0000SA0, annual averages (2024: 313.689). https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0?annualAveragesRequested=true
  3. U.S. BLS, Historical CPI-U table, Dec 2024 (1913: 9.9). https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/supplemental-files/historical-cpi-u-202412.pdf ; Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, "Consumer Price Index, 1913-." https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about-us/monetary-policy/inflation-calculator/consumer-price-index-1913-
  4. Federal Reserve Board, "Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run?" https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm
  5. U.S. SEC, IM Guidance Update No. 2017-02, "Robo-Advisers," Feb 2017. https://www.sec.gov/investment/im-guidance-2017-02.pdf
  6. Coinbase Developer Platform, "AgentKit Overview." https://docs.cdp.coinbase.com/agent-kit/welcome
  7. Coinbase, "Introducing x402: a new standard for internet-native payments," May 6, 2025. https://www.coinbase.com/developer-platform/discover/launches/x402
  8. Deutsche Bundesbank, "Bundesbank completes gold transfers ahead of schedule," Aug 23, 2017. https://www.bundesbank.de/en/press/press-releases/bundesbank-completes-gold-transfers-ahead-of-schedule-667434
  9. Reuters, "China's Kingold shares tank on report of fake gold bars," June 30, 2020. https://www.reuters.com/article/business/chinas-kingold-shares-tank-on-report-of-fake-gold-bars-idUSKBN2411X5/
  10. Caixin Global, "Cover Story: The Mystery of $2 Billion of Loans Backed by Fake Gold," June 29, 2020. https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-06-29/cover-story-the-mystery-of-2-billion-of-loans-backed-by-fake-gold-101572911.html
  11. Deutsche Bundesbank, briefing slides "Die deutschen Goldreserven," Aug 23, 2017. https://www.bundesbank.de/resource/blob/665440/86a8c56a0d2fbae8c6214b1941ae3986/472B63F073F071307366337C94F8C870/2017-08-23-praesentation-gold-data.pdf
  12. LBMA, "About Good Delivery." https://www.lbma.org.uk/good-delivery
  13. Bitcoin Core: src/consensus/amount.h and src/validation.cpp. https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/src/consensus/amount.h and https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/src/validation.cpp